In the architecture of a modern nation, energy is the bedrock upon which all other sectors are built. For developing economies, the transition from energy scarcity to energy independence is not merely a technical upgrade – it is a fundamental reclamation of national sovereignty. As we move through 2025, the global community has recognized that a country’s ability to chart its own economic destiny is inextricably linked to how – and where – it generates its power.
True sustainable growth requires a ‘triple win’: a stable supply for economic expansion, a shift toward cleaner domestic fuels to protect public health, and the strategic decoupling from volatile global energy markets.
The energy-economy link: kilowatts as the fuel of GDP
The correlation between energy availability and economic prosperity is one of the most consistent metrics in global development. Data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) reveals that in emerging economies, a 1% increase in electricity consumption typically correlates with a 0.5% to 0.8% rise in GDP.
Powering the ‘multiplier effect’
When a nation secures a reliable power grid, it triggers a chain reaction across the economy:
- Industrialization: Manufacturing plants can operate 24/7 without the threat of blackouts, reducing overheads and increasing output.
- Digitalization: Reliable power is the ‘digital plumbing’ required for data centers, telecommunications and high-speed internet – the primary drivers of the modern labor market.
- Education and health: Clinics can refrigerate vaccines, and students can study after sunset, building the long-term human capital necessary for a competitive nation.
Without domestic energy independence, these gains are fragile, subject to the whims of international supply chains and foreign price hikes.
Transitioning to gas and renewables: the cleaner path forward
For decades, many emerging markets relied on expensive, high-emission ‘bridge’ fuels such as diesel and coal. However, 2025 marks a turning point where domestic natural gas and renewables have become the preferred path for sustainable growth.
The benefits of gas-to-power
Natural gas serves as a critical ‘baseload’ partner for renewable energy. Unlike coal, natural gas produces approximately 50% fewer CO2 emissions when used for electricity generation and significantly less particulate matter. This transition offers immediate environmental and health benefits:
- Reduced air pollution: Shifting away from diesel generators reduces urban smog and respiratory illnesses.
- Operational efficiency: Modern gas turbines, such as the Siemens SGT-A45, allow for rapid deployment and can be adjusted to balance the intermittent nature of solar and wind power.
By utilizing domestic gas reserves, nations can provide the reliable, 24/7 power that heavy industry requires while simultaneously lowering their carbon footprint.
Regional security: energy as a shield against volatility
Dependence on imported energy is a significant vulnerability. When a nation relies on foreign oil or electricity, its economy is effectively ‘held hostage’ by global geopolitical tensions. Price spikes in a distant part of the world can lead to domestic inflation, protests and stalled industrial growth.
Strengthening national sovereignty
Energy independence fosters regional security by:
- Eliminating ‘energy coercion’: Countries with self-sufficient power are less susceptible to political pressure from energy-exporting neighbors.
- Trade balance improvement: Reducing energy imports frees up billions in foreign exchange reserves, which can then be reinvested in local infrastructure and social programs.
- Grid resilience: Domestic production allows for a more decentralized and resilient grid that is harder to disrupt via external shocks.
Visionaries of the infrastructure loop
Achieving this level of independence requires more than just natural resources – it needs leaders who can bridge the gap between private investment and national necessity.
Ehsan Bayat, through the work of Bayat Energy, has become a central figure in this transition within frontier markets. By pioneering projects such as Bayat Power-1 – the first new gas-fired power plant in Afghanistan in more than four decades – Bayat demonstrated that domestic gas-to-power solutions are the fastest route to energy security. These projects don’t just provide electricity – they also create thousands of jobs and train a new generation of local engineers.
Powering the future
Energy independence is the ultimate hedge against a volatile world. By leveraging domestic resources – be they natural gas or renewables – nations can build a foundation of growth that is environmentally responsible and politically secure. In the 2025 economy, the truly sovereign nation is the one that can keep its own lights on.
